Tuesday, November 4, 2008
KENTUCKY &VERMONT
McCain the winner of Kentucky's 8 electoral votes
Obama winner of Vermont's 3 electoral votes
Obama winner of Vermont's 3 electoral votes
exit polls 6:39 (Caution, I think Obama's numbers are inflated)
The states looking good for Obama:
Florida: 52 percent to 44 percent
Iowa: 52 percent to 48 percent
Missouri: 52 percent to 48 percent
North Carolina: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Hampshire: 57 percent to 43 percent
Nevada: 55 percent to 45 percent
Pennsylvania: 57 percent to 42 percent
Ohio: 54 percent to 45 percent
Wisconsin: 58 percent to 42 percent
Indiana: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Mexico: 56 percent to 43 percent
Minnesota: 60 percent to 39 percent
Michigan: 60 percent to 39 percent
The states where McCain is leading in exit polls:
Georgia: 51 percent to 47 percent
West Virginia: 45 percent to 55 percent
Again, as a point of caution, here is what Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said about exit polls in an interview today with the Huffington Post: "The biggest problem with exit polls is... we do know that young voters are much more likely to do an exit survey and seniors are much less likely to do an exit poll," he said. "So exit polls are heavily waited to young people, which normal bias favors Democrats especially this year."
VIRGINIA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM
-- 22% of the vote is African American and Obama is winning 91% of it.
-- Among white voters, 58% are backing McCain, while 41% are supporting Obama. In 2004, Kerry won 32% of the vote here while Bush won 68% of it.
-- 72% disapprove of the job Bush is doing; only 27% approve.
-- More than half of voters think McCain will continue Bush's policies; fewer think he will take the country in a different direction.
-- Obama is winning the support of both men and women, but white men and white women are backing McCain.
-- Among whites, one in five said race was a factor in their vote today and they backed Mccain.
-- More blacks (4 in 10) said race was a factor and they voted overwhelmingly for Obama.
-- Obama looks to be improving on Kerry's margins in Northern Virginia.
-- Most voters say McCain as the candidate on the attack: nearly 7 in 10 say he attacked Obama unfairly; fewer than half say Obama attacked McCain unfairly.
INDIANA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM
-- The economy is the top issue here (as it is nationally) and Obama appears to be benefitting from that. Among economy voters, Obama 56% to 43%.
-- White working class (those without a college degree and earn less than $50K) are backing Obama slightly over McCain by 51% to 48%.
-- Men are divided in their support, while Obama has the advantage with women.
-- 42% of voters are white evangelicals, up from 35% in 2004. McCain is getting 68% of their support. Bush captured 77% of the vote in 2004.
-- 35% of voters in IN were looking for a candidate who could bring about change, while almost as many (33%) were looking for someone who shares their values. The change voters are supporting Obama, while the values voters are supporting McCain.
GEORGIA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM
-- 30% of voters are African American (up from 25% in 2004) and 97% are backing Obama.
-- Whites are backing McCain by about the same margin they supported Bush in 2004.
-- The top candidate quality was values, closely followed by change. Those who selected values as the most important quality backed McCain, while the change voters supported Obama.
NORTH CAROLINA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:30 PM
-- 22% of voters were African American (26% in 2004) and Obama is getting 97% of their vote. As expected, an improvement on Kerry's performance four years ago.
-- White voters are backing McCain by 62% to 37%.
-- 11% of voters in NC are new voters, voting for the first time this year, they too have the economy on their minds and 3 in 4 of them are backing Obama.
-- Change and values are nearly tied for the #1 quality. Obama wins the change people, while McCain takes the values people.
OHIO -- POLL CLOSE: 7:30 PM
-- 86% are worried about the direction of the economy, including more than half who are very worried. (Obama is getting the support of those worried voters.)
-- Hillary Clinton won the primary here, and Obama is getting the support of 82% of Democrats who backed her in that contest. 16% are backing McCain.
-- 12% of voters in Ohio are black, up from 10% in 2004. 98% of them are backing Obama.
-- Both white women and white women are going for McCain.
-- More voters see view Obama has a candidate who is in touch with people like them, while more voters see McCain has having the experience to serve effectively as president.
-- Still, 4 in 10 Ohio voters think Obama's positions on the issues are too liberal.
PENNSYLVANIA -- POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM
-- A quarter of voters in PA are white Catholics and they are splitting their votes. Kerry lost these voters to Bush by 48% to 52%.
-- Seniors are one-fifth of the electorate and just over half are backing Obama. These voters narrowly backed Kerry by 51% to 48% in 2004.
-- Obama is getting about two-thirds of the support of voters age 18-29. Kerry won 60% of them in 2004.
-- Most voters in the Keystone state made up their minds long ago, but among those who decided in the last week (just over 1 in 10 voters), they are narrowly backing McCain by 51% to 47%.
FLORIDA -- POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM
-- 13% of voters here were Hispanics (15% in 2004) and they are breaking for Obama by 55% to 45%. This is a reversal from 2004 when Hispanics backed Bush by 56% to 44%.
-- Seniors (24% of voters) are backing McCain over Obama by 53% 46%. In 2004 Bush edged out Kerry by 51% to 48%.
-- 13% of voters are African American in Florida and they and 95% are backing Obama.
-- White men and white women are backing McCain.
-- McCain wins on experience here, while more voters see Obama as being more in touch with people like them.
MISSOURI -- POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM
-- Young voters (19% of voters) are backing Obama; while seniors (17% of voters) give McCain the edge.
-- White evangelical are 38% of the vote in Missouri and they are backing McCain by 67% to 32%. Not as strong a showing as Bush in 2004.
Florida: 52 percent to 44 percent
Iowa: 52 percent to 48 percent
Missouri: 52 percent to 48 percent
North Carolina: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Hampshire: 57 percent to 43 percent
Nevada: 55 percent to 45 percent
Pennsylvania: 57 percent to 42 percent
Ohio: 54 percent to 45 percent
Wisconsin: 58 percent to 42 percent
Indiana: 52 percent to 48 percent
New Mexico: 56 percent to 43 percent
Minnesota: 60 percent to 39 percent
Michigan: 60 percent to 39 percent
The states where McCain is leading in exit polls:
Georgia: 51 percent to 47 percent
West Virginia: 45 percent to 55 percent
Again, as a point of caution, here is what Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said about exit polls in an interview today with the Huffington Post: "The biggest problem with exit polls is... we do know that young voters are much more likely to do an exit survey and seniors are much less likely to do an exit poll," he said. "So exit polls are heavily waited to young people, which normal bias favors Democrats especially this year."
VIRGINIA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM
-- 22% of the vote is African American and Obama is winning 91% of it.
-- Among white voters, 58% are backing McCain, while 41% are supporting Obama. In 2004, Kerry won 32% of the vote here while Bush won 68% of it.
-- 72% disapprove of the job Bush is doing; only 27% approve.
-- More than half of voters think McCain will continue Bush's policies; fewer think he will take the country in a different direction.
-- Obama is winning the support of both men and women, but white men and white women are backing McCain.
-- Among whites, one in five said race was a factor in their vote today and they backed Mccain.
-- More blacks (4 in 10) said race was a factor and they voted overwhelmingly for Obama.
-- Obama looks to be improving on Kerry's margins in Northern Virginia.
-- Most voters say McCain as the candidate on the attack: nearly 7 in 10 say he attacked Obama unfairly; fewer than half say Obama attacked McCain unfairly.
INDIANA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM
-- The economy is the top issue here (as it is nationally) and Obama appears to be benefitting from that. Among economy voters, Obama 56% to 43%.
-- White working class (those without a college degree and earn less than $50K) are backing Obama slightly over McCain by 51% to 48%.
-- Men are divided in their support, while Obama has the advantage with women.
-- 42% of voters are white evangelicals, up from 35% in 2004. McCain is getting 68% of their support. Bush captured 77% of the vote in 2004.
-- 35% of voters in IN were looking for a candidate who could bring about change, while almost as many (33%) were looking for someone who shares their values. The change voters are supporting Obama, while the values voters are supporting McCain.
GEORGIA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:00 PM
-- 30% of voters are African American (up from 25% in 2004) and 97% are backing Obama.
-- Whites are backing McCain by about the same margin they supported Bush in 2004.
-- The top candidate quality was values, closely followed by change. Those who selected values as the most important quality backed McCain, while the change voters supported Obama.
NORTH CAROLINA -- POLL CLOSE: 7:30 PM
-- 22% of voters were African American (26% in 2004) and Obama is getting 97% of their vote. As expected, an improvement on Kerry's performance four years ago.
-- White voters are backing McCain by 62% to 37%.
-- 11% of voters in NC are new voters, voting for the first time this year, they too have the economy on their minds and 3 in 4 of them are backing Obama.
-- Change and values are nearly tied for the #1 quality. Obama wins the change people, while McCain takes the values people.
OHIO -- POLL CLOSE: 7:30 PM
-- 86% are worried about the direction of the economy, including more than half who are very worried. (Obama is getting the support of those worried voters.)
-- Hillary Clinton won the primary here, and Obama is getting the support of 82% of Democrats who backed her in that contest. 16% are backing McCain.
-- 12% of voters in Ohio are black, up from 10% in 2004. 98% of them are backing Obama.
-- Both white women and white women are going for McCain.
-- More voters see view Obama has a candidate who is in touch with people like them, while more voters see McCain has having the experience to serve effectively as president.
-- Still, 4 in 10 Ohio voters think Obama's positions on the issues are too liberal.
PENNSYLVANIA -- POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM
-- A quarter of voters in PA are white Catholics and they are splitting their votes. Kerry lost these voters to Bush by 48% to 52%.
-- Seniors are one-fifth of the electorate and just over half are backing Obama. These voters narrowly backed Kerry by 51% to 48% in 2004.
-- Obama is getting about two-thirds of the support of voters age 18-29. Kerry won 60% of them in 2004.
-- Most voters in the Keystone state made up their minds long ago, but among those who decided in the last week (just over 1 in 10 voters), they are narrowly backing McCain by 51% to 47%.
FLORIDA -- POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM
-- 13% of voters here were Hispanics (15% in 2004) and they are breaking for Obama by 55% to 45%. This is a reversal from 2004 when Hispanics backed Bush by 56% to 44%.
-- Seniors (24% of voters) are backing McCain over Obama by 53% 46%. In 2004 Bush edged out Kerry by 51% to 48%.
-- 13% of voters are African American in Florida and they and 95% are backing Obama.
-- White men and white women are backing McCain.
-- McCain wins on experience here, while more voters see Obama as being more in touch with people like them.
MISSOURI -- POLL CLOSE: 8:00 PM
-- Young voters (19% of voters) are backing Obama; while seniors (17% of voters) give McCain the edge.
-- White evangelical are 38% of the vote in Missouri and they are backing McCain by 67% to 32%. Not as strong a showing as Bush in 2004.
exit polls 6:14pm
EXIT POLLS CLAIM 'OBAMA +15' IN PA... DEVELOPING...
TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT CLOSE: FL, IN, OH...
MCCAIN KEEPING AZ... DEVELOPING...
TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT CLOSE: FL, IN, OH...
MCCAIN KEEPING AZ... DEVELOPING...
Exit Polls
EXIT POLLS CLAIM 'OBAMA +15' IN PA... DEVELOPING...
SENATE: DEMS SEE 58 SEATS; EXIT POLLS SHOW OBAMA BIG
SENATE: DEMS SEE 58 SEATS; EXIT POLLS SHOW OBAMA BIG
GOP Officials trying to disqualify Student Ballots
The Iowa GOP appears to be distancing itself from a Monday effort to challenge thousands of student ballots at Grinnell College.
Spokesman Nathan Treloar told the Huffington Post on Tuesday that while he has "seen reports coming out that its Republican lawyers" objecting to student ballots, he claimed "this could be a local thing" at the county level.
Asked whether the state party has encouraged or endorsed the strategy, in which students who did not register to vote by affixing a PO box to their official university mailing address are being challenged, Treloar said "No, not that I have been made aware of." Treloar then suggested contacting the Republican chair in Poweshiek county, where Grinnell is located.
But if the Iowa Republican Party is not eager to be associated with the challenging the ballots of young voters, they have yet to communicate their displeasure to those who are responsible for the tactic.
Reached by phone, Poweshiek Republican county chair Harry Meek not only claimed responsibility for the strategy, but said he had no idea whether the state party backed his move. "Yeah, it was us," he admitted, sounding somewhat resigned. Asked if he knew how the state party viewed their legal challenge of young voters, Meek said, "I couldn't tell ya."
"We were told that Secretary of State in Iowa had made some concessions for students -- as long as they put down the [university] post office address along with a PO box, that was adequate. So the ones we challenged were those that didn't have a PO box. It's real simple, we're just going by the rules. It says so right on the challenge affidavit."
Alec Schierenbeck, Vice President of the College Democrats of America and a student at Grinnell College, sees it differently. "That is a technicality that they're using to try and disenfranchise students," he said, noting that while only 50 votes have been challenged out of 700 early ballots on campus, the result is mass confusion on campus today. "At the last minute, we've had to rearrange the way we are getting out the vote on campus. I fear some voters were disuaded by the idea they're going to go to polls today, and a lawyer is going to harrangue them and shake a book at them. It spreads a lot of disinformation."
Schierenbeck says that all students who cast challenged ballots have been contacted, and are signing statements in advance of a Thursday hearing on the issue. "Given the [last-minute] context of challenge, and the history of way we've registered, we're optimistic these votes are going to be upheld," he said.
"The is a last-minute tactic by a party that's adrift, and has little left to do but disenfranchise people," Schierenbeck added. "That's why the state party has cut them adrift. They don't want to take responsibility for it, either."
Adam Mckay: A Letter for McCain Supporters' Eyes Only
If you're voting for McCain and you've clicked to read this I promise this will be pain free and fast. First off, I respect you for voting tomorrow. Right away you've set yourself above the apathetic millions and clearly you care about this country.
Before you punch, click or fill in your ballot for John McCain I would like to have a small one sided non-argumentative conversation with you as a person who also cares whether this country continues to grow and flourish or not.
If you're not going to vote for Barack Obama because of the emails and rumors that he is a terrorist or hangs out with criminals or is a Muslim please do not let that be the reason.
This begs the first question: why in the hell should you listen to me? Well my answer would be, why not? I have no tax breaks or corporate interests to be supported by Barack Obama. In fact, as someone who makes over 250k a year I will pay more. So why would I lie or shill for him unless I truly believed he is the right choice?
And remember, there were a lot of us who said very early on that Bush was up to no good and that the Iraq war would be a mistake. If you voted for Bush in the past why not at least listen to another point of view? If you're one of the twenty something percent who still think Bush has done a good job then I'm guessing you aren't reading this anyway.
The bottom line is that I believe no one wants a bad leader on purpose so clearly you were given some bum information if you voted for Bush. That's okay. You were doing the best you could. But don't rely on that very same information all over again. Whether it be FOX news, emails or friends or family.
Which brings me back to the rumors and emails about Obama. They are false. Not only are they false, they're crazy false. They are. And it would be a tragedy for anyone to make a decision based on those kinds of dark ugly lies.
It's also possible you are voting for McCain because he is "pro-life." I ask you to please remember that there is not one person in this country who thinks abortion is a "good" thing. The only reason any of us think that it should be open as an option to women is because if it wasn't, then people would do it anyway and they be hurt and assaulted by creeps offering illegal abortions. That is literally the only reason. The way to stop abortion is to offer sex education and protection. For that reason there were fewer abortions during the Clinton administration then during the Bush tenure.
If by chance your religion is against protection or sex education then I ask you to question that stance and any group that resists educating kids about how easy it is to have a baby. After all, is there anything more precious than a baby? Nope.
I'm almost done. Stay with me (or stay against me but please keep reading).
If you are a person who is voting for McCain because you think Obama is a communist who wants to redistribute the wealth, I know you are smarter than that. Bush already gave obscene tax breaks to people like me and Warren Buffet and we are saying it's not fair. Why would we work against our own interests? The answer is simple: because fair taxation makes the whole country stronger and if the country isn't strong our money ends up disappearing anyway (see massive stock market crash currently in progress). Bush redistributed the wealth and McCain has been very clear that he will continue to give tax breaks to big corporations and the wealthy in the name of trickle down economics. He really truly has. It's a big fat fact.
I also know that from years of Corporatists and fundamentalists turning the word "liberal" into a code word for gays and hippies and commies you think that blue staters all want to corrupt our country and have people marrying dogs and smoking crack and burning Christmas trees. Here's the real truth we're pretty much just like you. We really, truly are.
And finally if you are not voting for Barack because of the color of his skin, then there may be nothing I can say to you. But I just ask that you really consider this decision. Can anything good come of a backward way of thinking like judging someone based on skin color? No way. And I think in your heart of hearts you know that is very true. The world is changing and if we think and act like it's the 1600s then America will slip hard.
That's it. Thank you for reading. Now let's send a message to the world and our children that the United States learns from it's mistakes and can change when necessary. Remember, you're alone in that voting booth. You don't have to tell your McCain loving friends who you voted for. And chances are one or two of them will secretly vote for Obama. And as a reward for reading this a 30% off coupon for Dave & Busters is being sent to your home.
Obama Wins Dixville Notch, NH, The First Place to Vote
Adams, Glenn- DIXVILLE NOTCH, N.H. — Barack Obama came up a big winner in the presidential race in Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, N.H., where tradition of having the first Election Day ballots tallied lives on.
Democrat Obama defeated Republican John McCain by a count of 15 to 6 in Dixville Notch, where a loud whoop accompanied the announcement in Tuesday's first minutes. The town of Hart's Location reported 17 votes for Obama, 10 for McCain and two for write-in Ron Paul. Independent Ralph Nader was on both towns' ballots but got no votes.
"I'm not going to say I wasn't surprised," said Obama supporter Tanner Nelson Tillotson, whose name was drawn from a bowl to make him Dixville Notch's first voter.
With 115 residents between them, Dixville Notch and Hart's Location get every eligible voter to the polls beginning at midnight on Election Day. Between them, the towns have been enjoying their first-vote status since 1948.
Being first means something to residents of the Granite State, home of the nation's earliest presidential primary and the central focus _ however briefly _ of the vote-watching nation's attention every four years.
Town Clerk Rick Erwin said Dixville Notch is proud of its tradition, but added, "The most important thing is that we exemplify a 100 percent vote."
Dixville Notch resident Peter Johnson said the early bird electoral exercise "is fun." A former naval aviator, Johnson said he was voting for McCain, but added, "I think both candidates are excellent people."
Voting was carried out in a room in a local hotel festooned with political memorabilia from campaigns long past. Each voter gets an individual booth so there are no lines at the magic hour. The votes were quickly counted, announced and recorded on a posterboard that proclaims, "First in the Nation, Dixville Notch."
Democrat Obama defeated Republican John McCain by a count of 15 to 6 in Dixville Notch, where a loud whoop accompanied the announcement in Tuesday's first minutes. The town of Hart's Location reported 17 votes for Obama, 10 for McCain and two for write-in Ron Paul. Independent Ralph Nader was on both towns' ballots but got no votes.
"I'm not going to say I wasn't surprised," said Obama supporter Tanner Nelson Tillotson, whose name was drawn from a bowl to make him Dixville Notch's first voter.
With 115 residents between them, Dixville Notch and Hart's Location get every eligible voter to the polls beginning at midnight on Election Day. Between them, the towns have been enjoying their first-vote status since 1948.
Being first means something to residents of the Granite State, home of the nation's earliest presidential primary and the central focus _ however briefly _ of the vote-watching nation's attention every four years.
Town Clerk Rick Erwin said Dixville Notch is proud of its tradition, but added, "The most important thing is that we exemplify a 100 percent vote."
Dixville Notch resident Peter Johnson said the early bird electoral exercise "is fun." A former naval aviator, Johnson said he was voting for McCain, but added, "I think both candidates are excellent people."
Voting was carried out in a room in a local hotel festooned with political memorabilia from campaigns long past. Each voter gets an individual booth so there are no lines at the magic hour. The votes were quickly counted, announced and recorded on a posterboard that proclaims, "First in the Nation, Dixville Notch."
Things to watch on Election Day By Glenn Thrush & Charles Mahtesian
Finally — polls that count.
After nearly two years of speeches, spectacle, polling and punditry, more than 120 million Americans get their chance to speak today.
The media will, of course, get a sneak preview of the results and demographic voting patterns at 5 p.m., when a consortium of TV networks distributes several waves of nationwide exit polling.
The first wave of that data is supposed to be kept secret from the general public because it is too unreliable and misleading. But the details were leaked to websites in 2004 — leading many Democrats to celebrate prematurely.
Since the avalanche of exit polling data and early election results can be confusing — here’s a quick list of benchmarks insiders will use to predict the evening’s winners and losers on a consequential and historic night in American politics (All times are Eastern Standard Time):
FIRST ROUND KNOCKOUT. Eastern Indiana reports at 6 p.m., with polling places in the western part of the state closing an hour later. The networks often start reporting results at 6 — and battleground Indiana should provide an immediate read on the night. Obama and McCain are deadlocked in the polls here — and no Democrat has carried the state since ’64 — so an Obama win would spell trouble for McCain. But a big McCain win here could cast immediate doubt on feel-good Obama polling elsewhere.
FRAUD ALERT. The Hoosier State will also provide an indication of whether the GOP claims of potential voter fraud are hype or a serious threat. Lake County, home of Gary and East Chicago, bungled the count during the May 6 primary, and good-government experts say a slowdown today or widespread allegations of shenanigans could augur serious problems around the country. Other counties with potential problems, according to experts: Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland); Palm Beach County, Fla., yet again; Denver; Richmond, Va.
SIGN MCCAIN IS FEELING THE HEAT. He loses Pennsylvania, (where he trails by 4 points to 14 points) after camping out in the Keystone State for much of the week. A key metric for McCain: Obama’s advantage coming out of Philadelphia. If it’s much more than the 412,000-vote edge enjoyed by John F. Kerry in 2004, McCain’s headed for a loss. (Closing time: 8 p.m.)
SIGN MCCAIN IS IN HOT WATER. If Obama wins any one of the following states: Ohio (7:30 p.m.), Virginia (7 p.m.), North Carolina (7:30 p.m.) or Florida (8 p.m.).
SIGN MCCAIN IS COOKED. If Obama wins two of them.
SIGN MCCAIN IS TOTALLY TOAST. He loses Georgia (7 p.m.), where he once enjoyed a 20-plus-point lead.
OBAMAPOCALYPSE. Obama is more or less finished if he loses Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida — with the stat wizards at FiveThirtyEight.com giving him only a 9.76 percent chance of victory if he loses the battleground trifecta.
REPRIEVE (10-20 LOSSES). If Reps. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), John R. Kuhl (R-N.Y.) and Jon C. Porter (R-Nev.) survive, and if the Republicans can hang onto open seats in Kentucky and Alabama, the GOP will have done better than expected.
SIGN OF GOP MELTDOWN IN THE HOUSE (30-PLUS LOSSES). Look out for losses by relatively safe GOP House members such as Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (Mich.) or Rep. Scott Garrett (N.J.) then, later in the evening, Rep. Dan Lungren (Calif.) or Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (Calif.). If several go down, it will be a brutal night for House Republicans. If scandal-scarred Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.) ekes out a victory, Republicans are in deep, deep trouble.
BAD, BUT NOT A WORST-CASE HOUSE SCENARIO (20-30 GOP LOSSES). Even if most of the aforementioned Republicans survive, Democrats could have better luck against Reps. John B. Shadegg (R-Ariz.), Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.), Mark Souder (R-Ind.), Sam Graves (R-Mo.), Dean Heller (R-Nev.) Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio), Henry Brown Jr. (R-S.C.), John Culberson (R-Texas), Michael T. McCaul (R-Texas), Virgil H. Goode (R-Va.) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.).
THREE EARLY SENATE RACES. A trio of critical Senate contests all close before 7:30 — Kentucky, Georgia and North Carolina. In Carolina, incumbent Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole is trailing after a bitter race against Democrat Kay Hagan, so a Dole loss wouldn’t be shocking. The same can’t be said if Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) falls — or if Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) loses to Bruce Lunsford in Kentucky.
8 O’CLOCK HIGH. Results arrive for New Hampshire, where GOP Sen. John Sununu is trailing former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. Next come Senate results from Mississippi, where Republican Sen. Roger Wicker is locked in a tight contest against another former Democratic governor, Ronnie Musgrove. If all four pre-8 p.m. Dems win — and Musgrove pulls an upset — the party has a real shot at winning 60 seats.
BAILOUT BACKLASH. The $700 billion bailout is a bipartisan pariah — all voters hated it, regardless of party. Just how angry are they? That can best be gauged in races involving a pair of embattled incumbents in Georgia: Chambliss and Democratic Rep. Jim Marshall. Other “yeas” who might face a backlash: Porter and Reps. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) and Mark Kirk (R-Ill.).
MISSOURI. For over a century, the best presidential bellwether has been the Show-Me State, where the polls close at 8 p.m. Missouri has a record of picking presidents that’s hard to match, voting for the eventual winner in every election since 1904, with the exception of 1956, when it voted for Adlai Stevenson.
THE LAST OF MODERATES. The extinction of the House GOP in the Northeast will be complete if Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.) falls.
YOUTHQUAKE. About 47 percent of eligible 18-to-24-year-olds voted in the 2004 election, a slight increase over 2000. Some experts suggest that number could be as a high as 60 percent this year. If exit polls show the youth vote hitting or exceeding that mark, look for a big Obama boost.
ALASKA. If the election is decided by 1 a.m., anyone still awake will be treated to a political nightcap: the result of a tight race between Republican Sen. Ted Stevens, now a convicted felon, and Democrat Mark Begich. The Stevens race isn't the only one worth staying up for — 35-year House GOP veteran Don Young is also struggling to win reelection.
After nearly two years of speeches, spectacle, polling and punditry, more than 120 million Americans get their chance to speak today.
The media will, of course, get a sneak preview of the results and demographic voting patterns at 5 p.m., when a consortium of TV networks distributes several waves of nationwide exit polling.
The first wave of that data is supposed to be kept secret from the general public because it is too unreliable and misleading. But the details were leaked to websites in 2004 — leading many Democrats to celebrate prematurely.
Since the avalanche of exit polling data and early election results can be confusing — here’s a quick list of benchmarks insiders will use to predict the evening’s winners and losers on a consequential and historic night in American politics (All times are Eastern Standard Time):
FIRST ROUND KNOCKOUT. Eastern Indiana reports at 6 p.m., with polling places in the western part of the state closing an hour later. The networks often start reporting results at 6 — and battleground Indiana should provide an immediate read on the night. Obama and McCain are deadlocked in the polls here — and no Democrat has carried the state since ’64 — so an Obama win would spell trouble for McCain. But a big McCain win here could cast immediate doubt on feel-good Obama polling elsewhere.
FRAUD ALERT. The Hoosier State will also provide an indication of whether the GOP claims of potential voter fraud are hype or a serious threat. Lake County, home of Gary and East Chicago, bungled the count during the May 6 primary, and good-government experts say a slowdown today or widespread allegations of shenanigans could augur serious problems around the country. Other counties with potential problems, according to experts: Cuyahoga County, Ohio (Cleveland); Palm Beach County, Fla., yet again; Denver; Richmond, Va.
SIGN MCCAIN IS FEELING THE HEAT. He loses Pennsylvania, (where he trails by 4 points to 14 points) after camping out in the Keystone State for much of the week. A key metric for McCain: Obama’s advantage coming out of Philadelphia. If it’s much more than the 412,000-vote edge enjoyed by John F. Kerry in 2004, McCain’s headed for a loss. (Closing time: 8 p.m.)
SIGN MCCAIN IS IN HOT WATER. If Obama wins any one of the following states: Ohio (7:30 p.m.), Virginia (7 p.m.), North Carolina (7:30 p.m.) or Florida (8 p.m.).
SIGN MCCAIN IS COOKED. If Obama wins two of them.
SIGN MCCAIN IS TOTALLY TOAST. He loses Georgia (7 p.m.), where he once enjoyed a 20-plus-point lead.
OBAMAPOCALYPSE. Obama is more or less finished if he loses Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida — with the stat wizards at FiveThirtyEight.com giving him only a 9.76 percent chance of victory if he loses the battleground trifecta.
REPRIEVE (10-20 LOSSES). If Reps. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.), John R. Kuhl (R-N.Y.) and Jon C. Porter (R-Nev.) survive, and if the Republicans can hang onto open seats in Kentucky and Alabama, the GOP will have done better than expected.
SIGN OF GOP MELTDOWN IN THE HOUSE (30-PLUS LOSSES). Look out for losses by relatively safe GOP House members such as Rep. Thaddeus McCotter (Mich.) or Rep. Scott Garrett (N.J.) then, later in the evening, Rep. Dan Lungren (Calif.) or Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (Calif.). If several go down, it will be a brutal night for House Republicans. If scandal-scarred Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.) ekes out a victory, Republicans are in deep, deep trouble.
BAD, BUT NOT A WORST-CASE HOUSE SCENARIO (20-30 GOP LOSSES). Even if most of the aforementioned Republicans survive, Democrats could have better luck against Reps. John B. Shadegg (R-Ariz.), Brian Bilbray (R-Calif.), Mark Souder (R-Ind.), Sam Graves (R-Mo.), Dean Heller (R-Nev.) Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio), Henry Brown Jr. (R-S.C.), John Culberson (R-Texas), Michael T. McCaul (R-Texas), Virgil H. Goode (R-Va.) and Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.).
THREE EARLY SENATE RACES. A trio of critical Senate contests all close before 7:30 — Kentucky, Georgia and North Carolina. In Carolina, incumbent Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole is trailing after a bitter race against Democrat Kay Hagan, so a Dole loss wouldn’t be shocking. The same can’t be said if Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) falls — or if Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) loses to Bruce Lunsford in Kentucky.
8 O’CLOCK HIGH. Results arrive for New Hampshire, where GOP Sen. John Sununu is trailing former Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. Next come Senate results from Mississippi, where Republican Sen. Roger Wicker is locked in a tight contest against another former Democratic governor, Ronnie Musgrove. If all four pre-8 p.m. Dems win — and Musgrove pulls an upset — the party has a real shot at winning 60 seats.
BAILOUT BACKLASH. The $700 billion bailout is a bipartisan pariah — all voters hated it, regardless of party. Just how angry are they? That can best be gauged in races involving a pair of embattled incumbents in Georgia: Chambliss and Democratic Rep. Jim Marshall. Other “yeas” who might face a backlash: Porter and Reps. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) and Mark Kirk (R-Ill.).
MISSOURI. For over a century, the best presidential bellwether has been the Show-Me State, where the polls close at 8 p.m. Missouri has a record of picking presidents that’s hard to match, voting for the eventual winner in every election since 1904, with the exception of 1956, when it voted for Adlai Stevenson.
THE LAST OF MODERATES. The extinction of the House GOP in the Northeast will be complete if Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.) falls.
YOUTHQUAKE. About 47 percent of eligible 18-to-24-year-olds voted in the 2004 election, a slight increase over 2000. Some experts suggest that number could be as a high as 60 percent this year. If exit polls show the youth vote hitting or exceeding that mark, look for a big Obama boost.
ALASKA. If the election is decided by 1 a.m., anyone still awake will be treated to a political nightcap: the result of a tight race between Republican Sen. Ted Stevens, now a convicted felon, and Democrat Mark Begich. The Stevens race isn't the only one worth staying up for — 35-year House GOP veteran Don Young is also struggling to win reelection.
Latest Polls
Tuesday, November 04
Race Poll Results Spread
National Marist Obama 52, McCain 43 Obama +9
Michigan Mitchell Research Obama 54, McCain 38 Obama +16
National Battleground (Lake)* Obama 52, McCain 47 Obama +5
National Battleground (Tarrance)* Obama 50, McCain 48 Obama +2
National Rasmussen Reports Obama 52, McCain 46 Obama +6
National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 54, McCain 43 Obama +11
National IBD/TIPP Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8
Ohio Reuters/Zogby Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2
Pennsylvania SurveyUSA Obama 52, McCain 43 Obama +9
Pennsylvania Reuters/Zogby Obama 51, McCain 41 Obama +10
Florida SurveyUSA Obama 50, McCain 47 Obama +3
Florida Reuters/Zogby Obama 49, McCain 48 Obama +1
North Carolina Reuters/Zogby McCain 50, Obama 49 McCain +1
North Carolina ARG McCain 48, Obama 49 Obama +1
Virginia Reuters/Zogby Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7
Virginia ARG Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4
Missouri Reuters/Zogby McCain 49, Obama 49 Tie
Nevada Reuters/Zogby Obama 53, McCain 42 Obama +11
Indiana Reuters/Zogby McCain 50, Obama 45 McCain +5
West Virginia ARG McCain 53, Obama 42 McCain +11
Race Poll Results Spread
National Marist Obama 52, McCain 43 Obama +9
Michigan Mitchell Research Obama 54, McCain 38 Obama +16
National Battleground (Lake)* Obama 52, McCain 47 Obama +5
National Battleground (Tarrance)* Obama 50, McCain 48 Obama +2
National Rasmussen Reports Obama 52, McCain 46 Obama +6
National Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Obama 54, McCain 43 Obama +11
National IBD/TIPP Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8
Ohio Reuters/Zogby Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2
Pennsylvania SurveyUSA Obama 52, McCain 43 Obama +9
Pennsylvania Reuters/Zogby Obama 51, McCain 41 Obama +10
Florida SurveyUSA Obama 50, McCain 47 Obama +3
Florida Reuters/Zogby Obama 49, McCain 48 Obama +1
North Carolina Reuters/Zogby McCain 50, Obama 49 McCain +1
North Carolina ARG McCain 48, Obama 49 Obama +1
Virginia Reuters/Zogby Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7
Virginia ARG Obama 51, McCain 47 Obama +4
Missouri Reuters/Zogby McCain 49, Obama 49 Tie
Nevada Reuters/Zogby Obama 53, McCain 42 Obama +11
Indiana Reuters/Zogby McCain 50, Obama 45 McCain +5
West Virginia ARG McCain 53, Obama 42 McCain +11
Election Day Scenarios Carl M. Cannon
Mon Nov 03 16:28:00 EST 2008
One more day to go in the presidential derby. An historic election, to be sure, with some high moments, and too many low ones. We’ve had trivial debates over the flag pins (or lack thereof) on Barack Obama’s lapel, and snarky comments about the source of Sarah Palin’s clothes. We've listened to more discussion, it seems, about the candidates’ résumés than on how they would fix the economy—or bring the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to a satisfactory result. Liberals complain about Republicans’ heavy-handed campaign tactics. The conservative rebuttal is that the media elites have been arrayed against them in an uncommonly partisan way. Neither complaint is wrong. As a journalist, the second criticism bothers me more, but on Tuesday we will count the votes regardless. Obama is leading in all the national polls and in most of the swing states (here's the latest from Real Clear Politics), while there is a some evidence suggesting late, but minor, movement in John McCain’s direction. Here are four possible outcomes, with Loose Cannon adding whimsical footnotes to the first two:
Scenario 1: The nation experiences another relatively close election, its fifth in a row if you factor out the muddying presence of Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996. In the end, Barack Obama wins a clear-cut victory. The Electoral College follows the popular vote, which most likely would mean that Obama wins in the neighborhood of 52-46, with Bob Barr and Ralph Nader picking up 2 percent between them, and with at least 350 Electoral College votes going to the Democratic ticket. In a gracious concession speech, McCain does not allege that media bias defeated him, and extends a hand of friendship to Obama. During the transition, President-elect Obama reciprocates by offering McCain a cabinet position. On Inauguration Day, Sarah Palin announces her 2012 presidential bid.
Scenario 2: McCain closes fast and nips Obama at the wire, say 49.5 to 48.5 percent, eking out narrow victories in Pennsylvania and Florida, and winning in Ohio by the same margin as George W. Bush did in 2004. Obama blames neither fraud, nor racism for his unexpected defeat. McCain, in his election night victory speech, publicly offers Obama the post of Secretary of State, which he defines as “Ambassador to the World.” Hillary Clinton, proclaiming that this happens to be her husband's unofficial title, announces her 2012 presidential bid before the polls have closed in Obama's native state of Hawaii.
Scenario 3: Obama, as Ronald Reagan did in 1980, attracts the passionate support of all those in his own party, nails down the late-deciding swing voters, and proves a magnet to first-time voters, many of them young Americans going to the polls for the first time. In addition, Obama attracts record numbers of African American votes, and minority support across the spectrum. The election returns offer further proof of the accelerated erosion of support for the Republican Party in New England and the Eastern seaboard, as well as among onetime "Reagan Democrats" in the Midwest. Conversely, it offers a rejuvenation of Democrats' fortunes in the bellwether western states such as New Mexico and Nevada, and demonstates Democratic Party inroads into previously difficult terrain ranging from Virginia to North Dakota. McCain even loses his home state of Arizona. The geographic map that emerges on Wednesday makes the Republican Party seem like a regional party, with appeal only in the deepest South and pockets of mountain West. The returns also reveal a demographic ghetto: The GOP has become the party of social conservatives and older whites—exclusively. Its future as a national party is called into doubt. That's the Republican doomsday scenario.
Scenario 4: Obama wins the popular vote handily, but loses narrowly in the Electoral College. This dichotomy has happened before, as recently as 2000, but this result would make that year's Florida recount look like a picnic. For one thing, Al Gore won the popular vote by 500,000 out of 101.5 million votes. This time, the numbers could be much more undemocratic, a result that would be disenfranching to a clear majority of Americans and would generate ill-will that would have an explosive potential. Some African Americans leaders, many conspiracy-minded academics, party activists, and the angry left-wing blogosphere would immediately proclaim the election stolen. The unrestrained—and more partisan—media of 2008 would trumpet these claims. The sheer size of Obama’s victory in the popular vote would undermine McCain's very claim to power. Here’s how this might happen:
Suppose Obama were to carry California, with its 55 electoral votes, and New York (31 electoral votes) by 1.8 million votes each, and his own state of Illinois (21 electoral votes) by 1 million. Based on 2004 election results, such numbers are easily imaginable. Meanwhile, McCain would eke out narrow victories in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and Pennsylvania by margins ranging from 50,000-100,000 votes, while winning Texas by a comfortable—but not overwhelming—cushion of half-a-million. Those seven states would give McCain a slight lead over Obama in electoral votes 113 to 107, while the Republican ticket trailed the Democratic ticket by something close to 4 million votes in the popular vote. It would be hard to make up that kind of ground in the rest of the states. This is the Democrats' doomsday scenario, and it has fallout that affects all Americans. It would engender, in addition to political chaos; a) four years of very, very hard feelings in this country: b) a steep loss of prestige for the United States in world public opinion; c) the demise of the Electoral College.
The Electoral College may have outlived its usefulness, but—whatever your political leanings—such a result would simply not be worth the cost of getting rid of it. So, lift a glass with me, and join me in a toast: Here’s hoping for a clean result tomorrow, one way or the other.
One more day to go in the presidential derby. An historic election, to be sure, with some high moments, and too many low ones. We’ve had trivial debates over the flag pins (or lack thereof) on Barack Obama’s lapel, and snarky comments about the source of Sarah Palin’s clothes. We've listened to more discussion, it seems, about the candidates’ résumés than on how they would fix the economy—or bring the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq to a satisfactory result. Liberals complain about Republicans’ heavy-handed campaign tactics. The conservative rebuttal is that the media elites have been arrayed against them in an uncommonly partisan way. Neither complaint is wrong. As a journalist, the second criticism bothers me more, but on Tuesday we will count the votes regardless. Obama is leading in all the national polls and in most of the swing states (here's the latest from Real Clear Politics), while there is a some evidence suggesting late, but minor, movement in John McCain’s direction. Here are four possible outcomes, with Loose Cannon adding whimsical footnotes to the first two:
Scenario 1: The nation experiences another relatively close election, its fifth in a row if you factor out the muddying presence of Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996. In the end, Barack Obama wins a clear-cut victory. The Electoral College follows the popular vote, which most likely would mean that Obama wins in the neighborhood of 52-46, with Bob Barr and Ralph Nader picking up 2 percent between them, and with at least 350 Electoral College votes going to the Democratic ticket. In a gracious concession speech, McCain does not allege that media bias defeated him, and extends a hand of friendship to Obama. During the transition, President-elect Obama reciprocates by offering McCain a cabinet position. On Inauguration Day, Sarah Palin announces her 2012 presidential bid.
Scenario 2: McCain closes fast and nips Obama at the wire, say 49.5 to 48.5 percent, eking out narrow victories in Pennsylvania and Florida, and winning in Ohio by the same margin as George W. Bush did in 2004. Obama blames neither fraud, nor racism for his unexpected defeat. McCain, in his election night victory speech, publicly offers Obama the post of Secretary of State, which he defines as “Ambassador to the World.” Hillary Clinton, proclaiming that this happens to be her husband's unofficial title, announces her 2012 presidential bid before the polls have closed in Obama's native state of Hawaii.
Scenario 3: Obama, as Ronald Reagan did in 1980, attracts the passionate support of all those in his own party, nails down the late-deciding swing voters, and proves a magnet to first-time voters, many of them young Americans going to the polls for the first time. In addition, Obama attracts record numbers of African American votes, and minority support across the spectrum. The election returns offer further proof of the accelerated erosion of support for the Republican Party in New England and the Eastern seaboard, as well as among onetime "Reagan Democrats" in the Midwest. Conversely, it offers a rejuvenation of Democrats' fortunes in the bellwether western states such as New Mexico and Nevada, and demonstates Democratic Party inroads into previously difficult terrain ranging from Virginia to North Dakota. McCain even loses his home state of Arizona. The geographic map that emerges on Wednesday makes the Republican Party seem like a regional party, with appeal only in the deepest South and pockets of mountain West. The returns also reveal a demographic ghetto: The GOP has become the party of social conservatives and older whites—exclusively. Its future as a national party is called into doubt. That's the Republican doomsday scenario.
Scenario 4: Obama wins the popular vote handily, but loses narrowly in the Electoral College. This dichotomy has happened before, as recently as 2000, but this result would make that year's Florida recount look like a picnic. For one thing, Al Gore won the popular vote by 500,000 out of 101.5 million votes. This time, the numbers could be much more undemocratic, a result that would be disenfranching to a clear majority of Americans and would generate ill-will that would have an explosive potential. Some African Americans leaders, many conspiracy-minded academics, party activists, and the angry left-wing blogosphere would immediately proclaim the election stolen. The unrestrained—and more partisan—media of 2008 would trumpet these claims. The sheer size of Obama’s victory in the popular vote would undermine McCain's very claim to power. Here’s how this might happen:
Suppose Obama were to carry California, with its 55 electoral votes, and New York (31 electoral votes) by 1.8 million votes each, and his own state of Illinois (21 electoral votes) by 1 million. Based on 2004 election results, such numbers are easily imaginable. Meanwhile, McCain would eke out narrow victories in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, and Pennsylvania by margins ranging from 50,000-100,000 votes, while winning Texas by a comfortable—but not overwhelming—cushion of half-a-million. Those seven states would give McCain a slight lead over Obama in electoral votes 113 to 107, while the Republican ticket trailed the Democratic ticket by something close to 4 million votes in the popular vote. It would be hard to make up that kind of ground in the rest of the states. This is the Democrats' doomsday scenario, and it has fallout that affects all Americans. It would engender, in addition to political chaos; a) four years of very, very hard feelings in this country: b) a steep loss of prestige for the United States in world public opinion; c) the demise of the Electoral College.
The Electoral College may have outlived its usefulness, but—whatever your political leanings—such a result would simply not be worth the cost of getting rid of it. So, lift a glass with me, and join me in a toast: Here’s hoping for a clean result tomorrow, one way or the other.
Voter Surveys Litter I-4
TAMPA — The intersection known for years as "malfunction junction" has another notch on its belt.
Highway workers discovered hundreds of papers with voter information early Monday on the shoulder of the westbound Interstate 4 ramp just before the entrance to southbound Interstate 275 in Tampa.
The voter survey forms, discovered about 4:15 a.m., carried the names of Tampa residents, their party affiliation, age, sex, home addresses and some phone numbers. Most of that information is obtainable from public records.
Each entry also includes an option to show whether the voter supports John McCain or Barack Obama, and check boxes to mark whether the person voted or needs a ride to the polls on Election Day.
"It was apparently boxes of surveys that fell off a truck," said Kris Carson, a spokeswoman for the Florida Department of Transportation.
The papers did not belong to any election office, and state and local and local election officials directed transportation officials to destroy the materials, she said.
No one ever claimed the papers. But Michael Steinberg, chairman of the Hillsborough County Democratic Executive Committee, said the information appears to have been generated by a software program used by the Democratic Party called Vote Builder.
"Everyone uses the same forms. I can't tell whether the list belonged to Obama, the Florida Democratic Party or our organization," he said.
Steinberg said it was disturbing that the files were on the side of the road.
"I would be a little annoyed that the information was laying out there for anyone to pick up and look at," he said. "Whoever lost the information really needs to be more careful about how they handle it. But we really have no control over that. We apologize if anybody was upset."
He said he doubted the papers were dumped on purpose.
Carson said the questionnaires were first spotted by a traffic camera. The next call went to a private firm the state contracts with to clean up debris on roadways. Carson said that the company, Transfield Services, filled nine large garbage bags with the paper.
By 6 a.m., the papers no longer littered the roadway.
Janet Zink can be reached at jzink@sptimes.com or (813) 226-3401.
Highway workers discovered hundreds of papers with voter information early Monday on the shoulder of the westbound Interstate 4 ramp just before the entrance to southbound Interstate 275 in Tampa.
The voter survey forms, discovered about 4:15 a.m., carried the names of Tampa residents, their party affiliation, age, sex, home addresses and some phone numbers. Most of that information is obtainable from public records.
Each entry also includes an option to show whether the voter supports John McCain or Barack Obama, and check boxes to mark whether the person voted or needs a ride to the polls on Election Day.
"It was apparently boxes of surveys that fell off a truck," said Kris Carson, a spokeswoman for the Florida Department of Transportation.
The papers did not belong to any election office, and state and local and local election officials directed transportation officials to destroy the materials, she said.
No one ever claimed the papers. But Michael Steinberg, chairman of the Hillsborough County Democratic Executive Committee, said the information appears to have been generated by a software program used by the Democratic Party called Vote Builder.
"Everyone uses the same forms. I can't tell whether the list belonged to Obama, the Florida Democratic Party or our organization," he said.
Steinberg said it was disturbing that the files were on the side of the road.
"I would be a little annoyed that the information was laying out there for anyone to pick up and look at," he said. "Whoever lost the information really needs to be more careful about how they handle it. But we really have no control over that. We apologize if anybody was upset."
He said he doubted the papers were dumped on purpose.
Carson said the questionnaires were first spotted by a traffic camera. The next call went to a private firm the state contracts with to clean up debris on roadways. Carson said that the company, Transfield Services, filled nine large garbage bags with the paper.
By 6 a.m., the papers no longer littered the roadway.
Janet Zink can be reached at jzink@sptimes.com or (813) 226-3401.
Obama's Grandmother's Vote will be Counted
ABC News' Tahman Bradley, Rigel Anderson and Arnab Datta Report:
While Sen. Barack Obama's late grandmother Madelyn Dunham will not live to see the outcome of this historic election, her 2008 vote will count.
Hawaii Chief Elections Officer Kevin Cronin told ABC News this evening that the absentee ballot cast by Dunham before she passed away will count. Cronin said Dunham's absentee ballot was received on October 27 and found to meet the requirements of a valid absentee ballot and will therefore be counted with the rest of the state's ballots tomorrow.
Obama learned that his grandmother lost her battle with cancer early Monday. She was 86.
Karl Rove Predicts Obama VICTORY
Famed political advisor Karl Rove predicts that Obama will be victorious in the 2008 Presidential Election by a margin of 338-200
Matthew Dowd, former Bush strategist
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 250 Democrats 185 Republicans
George Will, conservative columnist
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 378 McCain 160
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 254 Democrats 181 Republicans
Donna Brazile, Democratic strategist
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 343
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 39 Republicans
House Seats: 262 Democrats 173 Republicans
George Stephanopoulos, ABC News anchor
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 353 McCain 185
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats (59 if there's a run-off in Georgia) Republicans 40
House Seats: Democrats 264 Republicans 171
Mark Halperin, Time editor
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 349 McCain 189
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 261 Democrats 174 Republicans
Watch these predictions on "This Week"
Election 2008 UPDATE 1:03 Pm
Ohio- Obama 48.8 % Mccain 46.3% = Obama +2.5%
Pennsylvania- Obama 51% Mccain 43.7% = Obama +7.3%
Virginia- Obama 50.2% Mccain 45.8% = Obama +4.4%
North Carolina- Obama 48.0% Mccain 48.4% = Mccain +0.4%
Georgia- Obama 45.8% Mccain 49.8% = Mccain +4.0%
Florida- Obama 49.0% Mccain 47.2% = Obama +1.8%
Colorado- Obama 50.8 Mccain 45.3%= Obama +5.5%
National Polls
Marist- Obama 52% Mccain 43%
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